Nord Stream 2: A prelude to war
Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 44, November 2022
Highlights
- The effect of opening Nord Stream 2 on the security of supply of natural gas.
- New security of supply measure based on 1-connectivity and expected shortfall.
- We assume that opening NS2 leads to closing the Ukrainian gas corridor.
- Overall NS2 would harm the security of supply of Eastern Europe.
Abstract
To understand the impact of keeping Nord Stream 2 off the map, we model the European natural gas market from the point of view of supply security. Focusing on the network aspects, we propose a novel framework to measure supply security, combining a linear programming approach with a risk assessment technique, expected shortfall (ES) borrowed from finance, particularly suited to measure extreme risk, such as the risk of failing pipelines.
Shifting Russian gas exports from Ukraine to Nord Stream 2 increases risks for South-Eastern Europe, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines can only partially alleviate these changes.
