How does the air we breathe shape our future families? A recent groundbreaking study titled “The Effect of Air Pollution on Fertility in 657 European Regions” (Stump and Szabó-Morvai 2025) offers alarming insights into this question. Spanning 657 regions in Europe between 2013 and 2020, the research reveals a stark link between air pollution and declining fertility rates, with significant policy implications.
The Findings
Using robust statistical methods, including instrumental variable analysis with wind speed and heating days as proxies for pollution levels, the study uncovers a causal relationship: an increase in particulate matter (PM) concentration leads to substantial reductions in birth rates. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in PM levels results in a 14.1% decline in births the following year and an additional 17.2% drop two years later. Importantly, the negative impact is most severe in regions with lower GDP, underscoring the compounding challenges faced by less affluent areas.
Why Particulate Matter?
While the study considered multiple pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide, particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) emerged as the primary driver of reduced fertility. These tiny particles, often released through vehicle emissions, industrial processes, and residential heating, are known to disrupt hormonal balance and reach the placenta, posing risks to both conception and fetal development.
Policy Implications
The research emphasizes the need for targeted environmental policies. By reducing PM levels, governments could not only improve public health but also potentially mitigate Europe’s declining fertility—a critical issue given aging populations and shrinking workforces. In fact, the study estimates that aligning PM2.5 levels with new EU standards could significantly boost fertility rates, particularly in Eastern Europe and parts of Italy.
A Call to Action
This study underscores the interconnectedness of environmental and demographic challenges. Policymakers must recognize the broader societal benefits of cleaner air, extending beyond health to the very sustainability of future generations. Investing in air quality improvements is no longer just an environmental issue—it’s a cornerstone of social and economic resilience.
Stump, Árpád, and Ágnes Szabó-Morvai. 2025. “The Effect of Air Pollution on Fertility in 657 European Regions.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management: 103111. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103111.
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